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Windows era is ending

Posted by GNC at 9:07 PM on July 30, 2010

It’s true.  I am aware of the percentage of people who have windows installed on their desktop and laptops.  Further, the monopoly will not collapse it will erode, and quicker than you might expect.  I moved from a city where the local lake has risen nearly 30 feet in the last 20 years.  Everyone said, “It’s going to stabilize, it won’t. . .”  It did.  The Windows era is ending.
Why?  The diversity of mobile OS’s.  Apple, Google, HP, and the other smartphone and mobile companies have destroyed Windows in the mobile market.  Their mobile OS’s integrate with Windows desktop leaving little reason for users to switch to a Windows mobile OS.  As the computing industry moves toward mobility and the cloud it will mean most people will use the web and cloud on non-windows systems for their phone.   The largest computing market in the world are the developing countries.  These people will be using their phones not desktops and laptops.  I am not alone in this opinion, a good read is the article at Gigaom from a Mary Meeker presentation.

But that is not the worst for Windows.  Five years ago I would bet only 10 in 100 people could give you the name of another operating system of any kind desktop or mobile.  Microsoft owned the OS market name.  Computers were Microsoft.  Not anymore.  Android, iOS, Symbian, Linux, and others are known by the majority of people.  Software companies long since loyal to Windows are going to diversify.  They want some of the money from the iPad, Android, Chrome, and Palm branches.  The web is going to make it easy.  Put their software on the web and it’s over.  Further, enter the influence of social media.  Windows used to mean computers.  Now Facebook and Twitter mean computing.  Whatever can get a user to those locations is what is important.  Can you hear the old barn creaking?  Can you see the new buildings being built?  It is like the end of an era on the old farm.

None of this is to say that Microsoft is going to crash or stop making a profit.  I simply believe they are not going to be taking the growth of the new market.  They will continue but other companies are going to take the new market of computing.  The era is ending.